Housing Market Update

DFW House Prices skyrocket …rising 43.3% in last five years!

EconomicChat2016.7July28

At Keller Williams, one of the top educators in the real estate brokerages, has leaders that bring us informative, thought provoking & adding valuable insight into the economics of real estate – thank you, Anne Lakusta, for continually challenging us to be the best we can be for our clients!

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North Texas Real Estate  Stats

When comparing the month of June over the last 3 years. All data comes from North Texas Real Estate Information Systems, Inc.

Months Supply of Homes for Sale: Month of June

Months Supply of Homes for Sale-Month of June

Inventory is the lowest its been in the last 3 years.

Actually inventory is low because buyers are gobbling up the homes that are for sale. We see over the last 3 years that the new listings are increasing year after year.

NewListings-June2016

New listings are increasing in last 3 years!

As we look closer, buyer demand is high which leads to higher sales prices.  Over the last 6 years we see an incredible increase in sales price! Now is the time to sell if there ever was one! We are in a unique moment in time especially with low interest rates…its time to take advantage of the market!

MedianSalesPrice.2016June

Median Sales Prices are continuing to increase.

Anne Lakusta says “Make sure your real estate agent is more than a for sale sign!  We work hard and take pride in being a true consultant to help your family make the right moves at the right times. Real estate is about wealth building and Triple Crown Realty – Keller Williams  can help!!”

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Homes Continue to Sell Quickly Nationwide

Homes Continue to Sell Quickly Nationwide | Keeping Current Matters

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently released their latest Existing Home Sales Report, which revealed that homes were on the market for an average of 47 days in March. This is a decrease from the 59 days reported in February, as well as the 52 days reported back in March 2015.

42% of homes across the country were on the market for less than a month, which is the highest it’s been since July 2015 (43%)!

Among the states with homes selling in 30 days or less are Washington, Oregon, and Minnesota. The map below was created using results from NAR’s Monthly Realtor Confidence Survey.

Homes Continue to Sell Quickly Nationwide | Keeping Current Matters

Bottom Line

Buyer demand is increasing as the inventory of homes available for sale remains low. If you are thinking about listing your home for sale this year, meet with a local real estate professional who can help you take advantage of current market conditions!

Housing Inventory Disappearing

Housing Inventory Disappearing | Keeping Current Matters

The price of any item is determined by the supply of that item, and the market demand. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently released their latest Existing Home Sales Report which gives insight into today’s market conditions. 

Inventory Levels & Demand

Sales of existing homes rose 5.1% month-over-month in March and are 1.5% higher than this time last year. Sales rose in all four major regions in March.

Total unsold housing inventory is 1.5% lower than March 2015 at a 4.5-month supply and remains well below the six months that is needed for a historically normal market.

Consumer confidence is at the highest level in over a decade. Pair that with interest rates still below 4%, programs available for down payments as low as 3%, and you have an attractive market for buyers.

Homes sold in March were on the market for an average of 47 days and 42% of properties sold in less than a month.

Prices Rising

March marked the 49th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains as the median price of existing homes sold rose to $210,700 (up 5.7% from 2015).

So What Does This Mean?

The chart below shows the impact that inventory levels have on home prices.

Where is Housing Headed for the Rest of 2016?

With the overall economy just inching along, some experts are questioning whether the housing market can continue its momentum throughout the rest of the year. People are beginning to ask questions such as:

  • Will disappointing economic news adversely impact housing?
  • Is affordability a major concern in today’s real estate market?
  • Are we approaching a new housing bubble?
  • Are mortgage standards too tight? Or have they loosened too much?

Freddie Mac, in their April Economic Outlook, addresses the disappointing economic news and what impact they think it will have on housing:

“Recent data darkened the growth outlook for the first quarter of 2016. However, despite the disappointing economic reports, we still forecast housing to maintain its momentum in 2016.

We’ve revised down our forecast for economic growth to reflect the recent data for the first quarter, but our outlook for the balance of the year remains modestly optimistic for the economy.”

What about real estate?

Freddie Mac was much more optimistic about housing…

“We maintain our positive view on housing. In fact, the declines in long-term interest rates that accompanied much of the recent news should increase mortgage market activity.”

They went on to conclude:

“We expect housing to be an engine of growth. Construction activity will pick up as we enter the spring and summer months, and rising home values will bolster consumers and help support renewed confidence in the remaining months of this year.”

Home Prices Are Up…But There is a Challenge

Home values continue to climb and are projected to increase by about 5% over the next twelve months. That is great news for anyone who owns a home. However, it could present a challenge for a family trying to sell their house.

If prices are surging, it is difficult for appraisers to find adequate, comparable sales (similar houses in the neighborhood that closed recently) to defend the sales price when performing the appraisal for the bank.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently released information revealing just how prominent the challenge is in today’s market.

Home Prices Are Up…but there is a Challenge | Keeping Current Matters

And the challenge is deepening…

Every month, Quicken Loans measures the disparity between what a homeowner believes their house is worth as compared to an appraiser’s evaluation in their Home Price Perception Index (HPPI). Here is a chart showing that difference for each of the last 12 months.

Home Prices Are Up…but there is a Challenge | Keeping Current Matters

As we can see the difference has increased each of the last two months.

Bottom Line

Every house on the market has to be sold twice; once to a prospective buyer and then to the bank (through the bank’s appraisal). With escalating prices, the second sale might be even more difficult than the first. If you are planning on entering the housing market this year, meet with an experienced professional who can guide you through this, and any other obstacle that may arise.

Warren Buffett: There is No Housing Bubble

Warren Buffett: There is No Housing Bubble | Keeping Current Matters

With home prices expected to appreciate by over 5% this year, some are beginning to worry about a new housing bubble forming. Warren Buffet addressed this issue last week in an article by Fortune Magazine. He simply explained:

“I don’t see a nationwide bubble in real estate right now at all.”

Later, when questioned whether real estate and/or mortgaging could present the same challenges for the economy as they did in 2008, Buffet said:

“I don’t think we will have a repeat of that.”

What factors are driving home prices up?

It is easily explained by the theory of supply and demand. There is a lack of housing inventory for sale while demand for that inventory is very strong. According to a recentsurvey of agents by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), buyer traffic was seen as either “strong” or “very strong” in 44 of the 50 states (the exceptions being: Alaska, Wyoming, North Dakota, West Virginia, Connecticut and Delaware).

Also, in NAR’s latest Pending Home Sales Report, it was revealed that the index was the highest it has been in a year.

What does the future bring?

As prices rise, more families will have increased equity in their homes which will enable them to put their home on the market. As more listings come to market, price increases should slow to more normal levels.

Anand Nallathambi, President & CEO of CoreLogic, recently addressed the issue:

“Home price gains have clearly been a driving force in building positive equity for homeowners. Longer term, we anticipate a better balance of supply and demand in many markets which will help sustain healthy & affordable home values into the future.”

Past, Present & Future Home Values

Past, Present & Future Home Values | Simplifying The Market

 

Here are state maps for each category:

The Past – home appreciation over the last 12 months

Past, Present & Future Home Values | Simplifying The Market

The Present – home appreciation over the last month

Past, Present & Future Home Values | Simplifying The Market

The Future – home appreciation projected over the next 12 months

Past, Present & Future Home Values | Simplifying The Market

Bottom Line

Homes across the country are appreciating at different rates. As we have mentioned before, the rate of home price appreciation across the country is due to a strong housing market reacting to supply and demand, and not a new housing bubble.

If you plan on relocating to another state, and are waiting for your home to appreciate more, you need to know that the home you will buy in another state may be appreciating even faster.

Let’s meet up so I can guide you through your next steps and help you decide what’s right for you.